I Built BTC Regime Because I Was Tired of Guessing
By @bullishnft · CryptoPunk owner · Founder of BitcoinWalletSG
I've been in crypto for 8 years. Trading actively for 5. I've survived three bear markets, two exchange collapses, and more liquidations than I'd like to admit.
At some point, I stopped trying to predict where price was going. I started paying attention to what kind of market I was trading in. That single shift, from prediction to regime awareness, changed everything.
The 45-minute morning routine that became a product
Every morning before I place a trade, I check the same things. ETF flows. Whale positioning. Liquidation volumes. Funding rates and open interest. Stablecoin liquidity. Fear & Greed.
This routine used to take me 45 minutes across six different tabs. Coinglass, DefiLlama, Hyperliquid explorer, a spreadsheet I maintained, TradingView, and whatever macro calendar I could find that wasn't behind a paywall.
One morning I looked at all those tabs and thought: why am I doing this manually?
So I built a tool to do it for me.
What BTC Regime actually does
BTC Regime takes everything I check every morning and turns it into one thing: a risk regime classification.
All four pillars (trend, liquidity, derivatives, volatility) are aligned bullish. Historically, these are the periods where BTC averaged +1.1% daily. This is when I size up.
The pillars are flashing red. Liquidity is draining, derivatives are overleveraged, volatility is spiking. In backtested data, RISK-OFF periods captured 75% of the largest drawdowns over 8 years. This is when I step back.
Everything in between (Cautious-Bull, Neutral, Cautious-Bear) tells me how much conviction to have. Not whether to trade, but how aggressively.
Think of it as a weather report for the market. You can still go outside when it's raining, but you'd want to know about the storm.
The four pillars
Every day, the regime score is calculated from four independent pillars. Each one captures a different dimension of market health.
Price structure, moving average relationships, trend quality, and close location value. Captures whether price action is constructive or deteriorating across multiple timeframes.
ETF flows, stablecoin market cap trends, and broader capital movement. Liquidity is the tide. It lifts or sinks everything.
Funding rates, open interest changes, and basis. When perp funding is heavily positive and open interest is at extremes, one side is overcrowded. The most reliable warning signal for short-term reversals.
Realized vs implied volatility, regime of daily moves. Calm markets behave differently than volatile ones, and the transition between the two is where most traders get caught.
Each pillar gets a score, and the weighted composite produces the regime label. No black box. If the regime says RISK-OFF, you can see exactly which pillar drove it and by how much.
40+ whales, not 10,000
Other platforms dump every large wallet into a feed and call it "whale tracking." You get thousands of addresses, most of them inactive, mixed with market makers, arbitrage bots, and wallets that moved funds once six months ago. The signal-to-noise ratio is terrible.
I took the opposite approach. I manually vetted 40+ active Hyperliquid traders. Each one has consistent positions above $1M. I've watched their behavior for months. I know which ones are momentum traders, which ones are contrarian, and which ones are quiet for weeks then size up aggressively.
The whale tracker aggregates their positions into a consensus signal per coin. When 15 out of 18 BTC whales are long with a combined net exposure of +$2.5M, that's "Strong Bullish." When it's split 9 and 9, that's neutral. You get the signal without the noise.
Positions come directly from Hyperliquid's L1 clearinghouse data. No delayed on-chain scraping, no guessing from exchange deposits. Real positions, real leverage, real PnL. Updated every 2 hours.
The morning briefing
I built a Telegram bot because I realized I didn't always want to open a dashboard. Sometimes I just want the answer.
Every day at 8:08 AM and 8:08 PM SGT, I get a single message. Today's regime score with a visual breakdown of each pillar. Market pulse: ETF flows, funding rates, open interest, stablecoin supply, exchange flows. Whale consensus table. Macro calendar with upcoming events and historical price reactions.
One message. Everything I need before I start my trading day.
On top of that, I get real-time alerts. Regime shift alerts when the classification flips. Whale consensus shifts when sentiment changes direction. Liquidation spike alerts when daily volumes exceed 2x the 7-day average.
I don't check charts until I've read the briefing. It gives me context before I look at price.
Why I'm opening this up
I built BTC Regime for myself. It started as a collection of scripts running on a server, pulling data from APIs and dumping it into a SQLite database. Then it became a dashboard. Then it got a Telegram bot. Then I added authentication and a proper database because friends kept asking for access.
At some point I realized something. If this is useful to me, someone who's been doing this for years and knows where to find all this data manually, it's probably even more useful to someone who doesn't have the time or technical background to stitch it all together.
The core regime score, Fear & Greed index, DeFi overview, and liquidity dashboard are free. Forever. No credit card required.
Pro unlocks the deeper tools: whale tracking, liquidation zones, exchange flows, derivatives data, and the Telegram alerts. $19.90/month. Less than one bad trade on leverage.
What this isn't
It's not a signal service. I don't tell you what to buy or when to sell. The regime score is a risk classification, not a trading signal. What you do with that information is up to you.
It's not a price prediction tool. I have no idea where BTC is going next week. Nobody does. What I can tell you is whether the current environment historically favors risk-taking or risk-reduction.
It's not financial advice. I'm a retail trader who built a tool for himself. I'm not a registered advisor. The backtested statistics come from historical simulations. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
The best traders I know don't have better signals than everyone else. They have better context. They know when the environment is in their favor and they size accordingly. They know when it isn't and they get small.
I built BTC Regime because I needed it. After 8 years in crypto and 5 years of active trading, this is the tool I wish I'd had from the start.
All backtested statistics are from historical simulations and do not represent actual trading results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. BTC Regime is not financial advice. See our Terms and Privacy Policy.