Don't predict the market. Manage your risk.
Four pillars. One score. BTC Regime synthesizes ETF flows, derivatives, on-chain data, and macro context into a single risk regime classification. Pro unlocks whale tracking, liquidations, derivatives, and Telegram alerts.
How is this different?
You could piece this together from TradingView, Coinglass, and a spreadsheet. Or you could save yourself the time.
Other platforms show you 200 indicators and leave you to figure it out. We synthesize ETF flows, derivatives, on-chain data, stablecoin liquidity, and macro context into one score.
Every pillar has a breakdown. See exactly what contributed to today's regime and by how much. No hidden algorithms.
Funding rate heavily positive? The score flags overcrowded longs. Negative funding with falling OI? It spots the squeeze setup. Price action and trend quality drive the model, not sentiment indexes.
Every signal was tested against historical BTC data. Signals that didn't hold up out-of-sample were removed. What remains is what survived backtesting.
Research: 8 years of data
Numbers below are from backtested simulations on historical BTC data. Past performance does not indicate future results.
In backtested simulations, RISK-OFF periods were associated with 75% of the largest drawdowns over 8 years of historical data.
Backtested simulations showed 2-4x variation in risk-adjusted returns between RISK-ON and RISK-OFF periods.
Daily moves >5% occurred 2-3x more often during periods classified as RISK-OFF in historical backtests.
Altcoin beta vs BTC measured 1.27-1.34x during backtested RISK-OFF periods, indicating amplified correlation.
What each regime tells you
RISK-OFF: Stress across all pillars
All four pillars are scoring negatively. In backtested data, RISK-OFF days averaged -0.98% daily on BTC, and altcoin beta measured 1.3x. Large daily moves (>5%) occurred 2-3x more frequently during these periods.
NEUTRAL: Mixed signals
Markets spent roughly 40% of the time in NEUTRAL or CAUTIOUS territory during backtested periods. Volatility was lowest in these regimes. Pillar scores are split or near zero.
RISK-ON: All pillars aligned bullish
In backtested data, RISK-ON days averaged +1.10% daily on BTC and altcoin beta dropped to 0.8x (tighter correlation). All pillars are scoring positively: liquidity inflows, healthy derivatives, calm volatility.
All statistics are from backtested simulations on historical data. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
40+ handpicked whales. Not 10,000 random wallets.
Other platforms dump every large wallet into a feed and call it "whale tracking." You get thousands of addresses, most inactive, with no way to tell signal from noise. We do the opposite.
Each whale is manually vetted. We track 40+ active Hyperliquid traders with consistent >$1M positions, not a bulk export of every wallet that ever crossed a threshold.
We aggregate positions into a single Whale Consensus signal per coin. When 8 out of 12 whales with BTC positions are long, that means something. One random wallet flipping doesn't.
Positions are read directly from Hyperliquid L1 clearinghouse data. No delayed on-chain scraping, no guessing from exchange deposits. Real positions, real leverage, real PnL. Updated every 2 hours.
What you see per whale
The dashboard comes to you.
You shouldn't have to check a website every hour. Link your Telegram and get the signals that matter, when they matter.
Every day at 8:08 AM and 8:08 PM SGT: regime with pillar bar charts, market pulse (ETF flows, funding, OI, stablecoins, exchange flows, DeFi TVL), whale consensus table, macro events with historical price reactions, and earnings alerts with tradeable assets. One message, everything you need.
Get notified the moment the regime shifts. CAUTIOUS-BULL to RISK-OFF? You'll know within the hour, with the pillar that drove the change.
When BTC whale sentiment flips from "Strong Long" to "Lean Short," you'll see the shift in Telegram as it happens. Tracks all major coins our whales trade.
When 24h liquidations exceed 2x the 7-day average, something is breaking. Get the alert with the long/short split and current regime context.
What the regime is, and isn't
- A market risk classification system
- An informational data aggregation tool
- A volatility and liquidity monitoring system
- Tested against historical BTC data
- A buy/sell signal generator
- A price prediction tool
- A replacement for your own analysis
- Financial advice
Important disclaimer
BTC Regime is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The regime classification, scores, signals, and all associated data are for informational and educational purposes only. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. All backtested statistics are hypothetical, derived from historical simulations, and do not represent actual trading results. Past performance, whether backtested or live, does not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and you may lose some or all of your investment. See our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
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Built by @bullishnft, CryptoPunk owner, founder of BitcoinWalletSG.
Questions? Email support@btcregime.com