Data Sources

Where all data comes from, how it's collected, and why each source matters.

Overview

Five independent data feeds supply the BTC Regime scoring model. All data is stored in PostgreSQL and refreshed on a fixed cron schedule. Crypto market data comes from Coinglass and DefiLlama/CoinGecko, while macro indicators come from FMP and FRED.

Source	API	Pillar fed	Frequency
Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows	Coinglass	Liquidity	Daily
Stablecoin Supply	DefiLlama + CoinGecko	Liquidity	Daily
Exchange Netflows	Coinglass	Liquidity	Every 2 hours
Derivatives (Funding, OI, Liquidations)	Coinglass	Derivatives + Volatility	Every 4 hours
Macro Indicators (DXY, US10Y, SPX, VIX)	FMP + FRED	Macro Context overlay	Daily

1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows

Source

Coinglass ETF API for daily net flows and AUM history. Aggregated across all major ETFs.

Data collected

Field	Description	Unit
date	Trading date	YYYY-MM-DD
total_net	Total net flow across all ETFs for the day	Millions USD
aum_usd	Total AUM across all ETFs	USD

How it's used: The model sums the last 3 trading days of total_net (absolute USD millions) as the etf3dSum input. Thresholds are fixed dollar amounts: >$1B strongly bullish (+10), <−$500M strongly bearish (−10). Feeds Component A of the Liquidity pillar (45% weight within pillar).

Update schedule

Every 2 hours via /api/sync/daily. ETF data reflects the previous trading day's close.

2. Stablecoin Supply

Sources

Market cap history: DefiLlama. Free, no key required.
Total crypto market cap (for dominance): CoinGecko. Free, no key required.

Data collected

Field	Description	Unit
market_cap_billions	Total stablecoin market cap (all major coins)	Billions USD
supply_change_percent	7-day % change in total supply	Percentage
dominance_percent	Stablecoin mcap / total crypto mcap x 100	Percentage

Why it matters: Stablecoin supply is a proxy for capital available within the crypto ecosystem. Rising supply indicates new capital entering. Contraction indicates capital leaving. The supply_change_percent (7-day change) feeds Component C of the Liquidity pillar (20% weight within pillar).

Update schedule

Every 2 hours via /api/sync/daily.

3. Exchange Netflows

Source

Coinglass on-chain data for historical exchange balance and per-exchange breakdown. Results cached for 3 hours (1.5x the sync interval) to survive one failed sync.

Data collected

Field	Description	Unit
exchange_netflow	Net BTC value on exchanges (positive = inflow/distribution, negative = outflow/accumulation)	Millions USD

Why it matters: Large outflows from exchanges have historically been associated with holding behavior; large inflows have historically been associated with distribution pressure. Feeds Component D of the Liquidity pillar (20% weight within pillar).

Update schedule

Every 2 hours via /api/sync/exchange-flows.

4. Derivatives: Funding Rate, Open Interest & Liquidations

Source

Coinglass, which aggregates derivatives data from Binance, OKX, Bybit, and other major exchanges. Three feeds are collected: perpetual funding rates, aggregate open interest, and liquidation history.

Data collected

Field	Description	Unit
funding_rate_percent	Current 8h perpetual funding rate (Binance BTCUSDT)	% per 8h
open_interest_usd	Total notional open interest across all exchanges	USD
oi_change_24h_pct	24-hour % change in OI (computed from stored history)	Percentage
liquidations_24h	Total liquidations in last 24 hours (Binance + OKX + Bybit)	Millions USD
avg_liquidations_7d	7-day average daily liquidations	Millions USD

Why it matters: Funding rate is contrarian: high positive funding means longs are overpaying, signaling overcrowded positioning and reversal risk. The Derivatives pillar uses two components: Funding Rate Z-Score (50%, gated by trend direction) and OI × Price Interaction (50%). OI data also feeds the Volatility pillar (15%) via realized volatility calculations.

Update schedule

Every 4 hours via /api/sync/derivatives.

5. Macro Indicators

Sources

SPX, VIX, forex pairs: Financial Modeling Prep (FMP). Free tier: 250 req/day.

US 10-Year yield: FRED (Federal Reserve), series DGS10.

DXY: Synthesized from 5 FMP forex pairs + 1 FRED series using the ICE DXY formula (see below).

Data collected

Field	Description	Source
dxy	US Dollar Index (synthesized from forex rates)	FMP + FRED (computed)
us10y	10-year Treasury yield. Forward-filled on non-trading days.	FRED DGS10
spx	S&P 500 daily close	FMP ^GSPC
vix	CBOE Volatility Index. Forward-filled on non-trading days.	FMP ^VIX

DXY approximation (ICE basket weights)

50.14348112 × EURUSD^−0.576 × USDJPY^0.136
              × GBPUSD^−0.119 × USDCAD^0.091
              × USDSEK^0.042 × USDCHF^0.036

This is a synthesized approximation using published ICE basket weights applied to FMP and FRED data. It is not sourced from ICE directly and may differ from the official DXY index. 400 calendar days of history fetched to support the 200-day moving average.

Important: Macro data feeds the Macro Context overlay only, not the BTC regime score. It provides an independent macro alignment signal without changing the regime direction. See Macro Context for details.

Update schedule

Every 2 hours via /api/sync/daily. Macro data from FMP and FRED updates after US market close; earlier runs will re-fetch the same values until new data is published.

Scoring-Related Sync Schedule

Schedule	Endpoint	Data synced
Every 2 hours	/api/sync/daily	ETF flows, stablecoins (DefiLlama + CoinGecko), macro (FMP + FRED)
Every 2 hours	/api/sync/exchange-flows	Exchange netflows (Coinglass on-chain)
Every 4 hours	/api/sync/derivatives	Funding rate, OI, liquidations (Coinglass)

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