Macro Context & Alignment
How traditional market conditions are compared against the BTC regime signal.
Core design principle
Macro context never changes the BTC regime direction. It is an independent overlay that shows whether traditional macro conditions are aligned with or diverging from the BTC regime signal.
The system produces two outputs: the BTC regime score and a macro alignment score. They are presented side by side so users can see the full picture. This is informational — not a trading recommendation.
Three independent macro votes
Each indicator votes independently. Votes are summed (range: −2.5 to +2.5) to determine macro context.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
weight: 1.0A weaker dollar has historically been associated with stronger risk asset performance globally. A strengthening dollar has historically drawn capital toward USD-denominated assets.
| Condition | Vote | Macro signal |
|---|---|---|
| DXY trending down + below 200D MA | +1 | Risk-On |
| Mixed or flat signals | 0 | Neutral |
| DXY trending up + above 200D MA | −1 | Risk-Off |
Real Yields (US10Y)
weight: 1.0Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Falling yields remove this pressure.
Note: Real yield approximated as nominal US10Y − 2.5% (assumed inflation).
| 30-day yield change | Vote | Macro signal |
|---|---|---|
| < −0.2% | +1 | Risk-On: falling yields reduce headwind |
| −0.2% to +0.2% | 0 | Neutral: stable rates |
| > +0.2% | −1 | Risk-Off: rising rates increase headwind |
Equity Risk (SPX & VIX)
weight: 0.5BTC has historically shown correlation with broad risk appetite. Lower weight (0.5) reflects that the BTC–equity relationship breaks down during crypto-specific events.
| Condition | Vote | Macro signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPX above 200D MA AND VIX < 20 | +0.5 | Risk-On: healthy equity environment |
| Mixed (one condition met) | 0 | Neutral |
| SPX below 200D MA AND VIX > 20 | −0.5 | Risk-Off: equity stress |
Macro Context Classification
The three votes are summed (total range: −2.5 to +2.5) to classify the macro environment:
| Total vote score | Classification | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| ≥ +1.5 | Macro Risk-On | Traditional markets supportive of risk assets |
| −1.0 to +1.4 | Macro Neutral | Mixed signals: no clear tailwind or headwind |
| ≤ −1.5 | Macro Risk-Off | Traditional markets creating headwind for BTC |
Alignment Matrix
Cross-referencing the BTC regime with the macro context shows whether the two signals are aligned or diverging. This is displayed on the dashboard as an alignment indicator.
| BTC Regime | Macro Risk-On | Macro Neutral | Macro Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|
| RISK-ON | ✅ Aligned | ⚠️ Mixed | ❌ Diverging |
| CAUTIOUS-BULL | ✅ Aligned | ⚠️ Mixed | ❌ Diverging |
| NEUTRAL | ⚠️ Mixed | ⚠️ Mixed | ⚠️ Mixed |
| CAUTIOUS-BEAR | ❌ Diverging | ⚠️ Mixed | ✅ Aligned |
| RISK-OFF | ❌ Diverging | ⚠️ Mixed | ✅ Aligned |
BTC regime and macro context are pointing in the same direction.
One or both signals are neutral, or the regime is NEUTRAL.
BTC regime and macro context are pointing in opposite directions.
Historical context
These examples illustrate what the signals showed during notable periods. They are selected post-hoc and do not represent live system performance. Historical signal states do not guarantee future accuracy.
Q1 2024: Both signals aligned
May 2022: Signals diverging
Late 2023: Both signals neutral
About this data
- → The macro overlay is informational. It shows the state of traditional macro conditions relative to BTC.
- → Three independent indicators prevent any single data point from dominating the macro assessment.
- → Historical correlation between macro context and BTC performance does not guarantee future results.
- → This is not financial advice. All data is provided for informational purposes only.